Our worldwide society is lurching forward like a drunken sailor. We are on a collision course with the climate. We’re creating a train wreck in slow motion. And while it may be slow motion now, this freight train is speeding up and gaining momentum. Pretty soon, a lot sooner than later, there will be nothing we can do to slow it down and prevent a massive catastrophe.
Last month the United Nations published its current assessment of where the world stands on keeping emissions that are warming the planet at a level that will help limit the heat from going beyond the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that is projected by scientists to be the level where we MAY be able to adopt without causing massive disruption to our civilization. The report estimates that we are on track for a 3 degree increase and instead of reversing the trajectory to avoid this, we are actually doing the opposite.
“The U.N. found global emissions need to fall 42 percent by 2030 to put the world on track to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 or by 28 percent to hold temperature increases to the 2 C targeted by the Paris Agreement.”
“The lifetime emissions of current and planned oil and gas fields and coal mines is three and a half times greater than the carbon budget needed to hold temperature increase to 1.5 C. It would exhaust almost all the budget needed for 2 C, the U.N. said.”
Here’s the link to the full article. I’ll copy and paste it to the end of this blog in case you are unable to open the link.
Meanwhile, here’s an example of what’s going wrong… I received this email today.
“Over the past year, we met with our federal representatives to enforce the Line 5 shut down order. As you know, Governor Whitmer of Michigan took a historic step by revoking Enbridge’s right to operate Line 5 in the Great Lakes, thereby issuing the first-ever shutdown order for an operating pipeline.
The initial shutdown deadline was slated for May 2021. But Enbridge, the company running Line 5, is continuing to operate illegally.
Today, the Michigan Public Service Commission (a commission that was appointed by Whitmer) approved Enbridge’s Line 5 Great Lakes expansion project. This project involves the construction of the largest underwater hazardous liquids tunnel ever proposed, right in what scientists identify as the worst spot in the Great Lakes for an oil spill, the Straits of Mackinac.
If implemented, the project is estimated to add 27 million metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere. This is equivalent to the emissions produced by ten coal-fired power plants. These consequences only worsen the impacts of the climate crisis we are already grappling with!
The proposed tunnel must still pass a comprehensive federal environmental study before moving forward.
This decision poses a significant threat to our Great Lakes and we must respond swiftly to address this development!”
I’m gonna keep this article short so as not to distract you with any other item and simply let this all sink in. We are just finishing the warmest year in recorded history and experiencing ever more frequent and damaging natural disasters and we simply continue to barrel forward with little concern for the future. It’s quite frightening and honestly, disgusting. And yet, here we are! Can anything happen to change the outcome that we’re headed for? Maybe. But time is rapidly running out.
Here’s the full article that is linked to above.
World on pace to blow past Paris climate targets, UN says
Global emissions need to fall 42 percent by 2030 to set the world on a path to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Humanity remains far from that goal.
BY: BENJAMIN STORROW | 11/20/2023 09:00 AM EST
Sunlight filters through a cloud of dust last month on a farm near Allerton, Ill.Joshua A. Bickel/AP
CLIMATEWIRE | Earth is on track for 3 degrees Celsius of warming, and humanity needs to make deep emission cuts this decade to have a chance of fulfilling the goals of the Paris climate agreement, the United Nations said in a report released Monday.
The findings come amid record-setting global temperatures and as the amount of planet-warming pollution in the atmosphere reaches new heights. It also underscores the enormity of the task facing climate negotiators as they prepare for talks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, later this month.
The U.N. found global emissions need to fall 42 percent by 2030 to put the world on track to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 or by 28 percent to hold temperature increases to the 2 C targeted by the Paris Agreement. Doing so would require a sudden reversal in global emission trends, which have risen steadily in recent decades. The longer it takes the world to meaningfully cut emissions, the more carbon dioxide removal technology will be needed to stabilize global temperatures, the U.N. said.
“There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change, so we need to stop setting unwanted records on greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs and extreme weather,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environmental Programme. “We must instead lift the needle out of the same old groove of insufficient ambition and not enough action, and start setting other records: on cutting emissions, on green and just transitions and on climate finance.”
The annual emissions gap report highlighted both the progress and challenges facing global climate efforts.
A growing number of nations have pledged to slash greenhouse gas emissions, and fulfilling those pledges would limit global temperature rise to 2.5 C. Yet few of those pledges “are currently considered credible,” the U.N. said.
The lifetime emissions of current and planned oil and gas fields and coal mines is three and a half times greater that the carbon budget needed to hold temperature increase to 1.5 C. It would exhaust almost all the budget needed for 2 C, the U.N. said.
“The only way to close the yawning emissions gap and curtail this spiraling crisis — which is already causing unprecedented climate disasters — is through wholesale changes to the global energy system,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the Union of Concerned Scientists’ climate and energy program.
The U.N. estimated global CO2 emissions reached 57.4 gigatons in 2022, a new record. That puts the world on track for 3 C of warming if policies continue on their current course.
“Most countries and major emitters have set net-zero targets for 2050 or a little later,” said Taryn Fransen, director of science, research and data at the World Resources Institute and a contributor to the report. The problem is that near-term policy is “not putting countries on track to achieve those net-zero targets.”
Nevertheless, there are signs that the gap between countries’ climate ambitions and the policies they are pursuing is closing. At the time of the Paris Agreement, global emissions were expected to grow 16 percent by 2030. Now, emissions are expected to increase by 3 percent, by the end of the decade, the U.N. said. Fransen said she was encouraged by progress in the United States and Europe, where governments are pushing forward with plans to deploy clean energy technologies and cut emissions.
This year’s reports reflects some methodological changes. The finding that the world is on track for 3 C of warming is higher than the 2.8 C anticipated in last year’s report. The U.N. findings draw on a series of modeling studies. This year’s edition drew on a larger collection of studies, which prompted an increase in the headline temperature finding.
Greenhouse gas levels have climbed steadily this century, falling briefly only for a global recession in 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic before resuming their climb. Many analysts believe the world is on course for an emissions plateau,with reductions in the United States and Europe offset by rising pollution in Asia. Carbon Monitor, an academic emissions tracker, estimates that global emissions were 0.4 percent higher through the first nine months of 2023, compared to the same time last year.
