I’m sure you are aware that over half of US coal fired power plants have been closed since 2002 when the Sierra Club Beyond Coal Campaign began. (281 retired and 249 to go) And almost no new ones have been permitted for construction. This has not only reduced significant amounts of CO2 but also small particulate matter and other emissions that harm public health. More coal plant closings (or scheduled to close) have occurred in the last year than then during the last year of the Obama Administration. (US power producers plan to take at least 11.4 GW of coal-fired power plant capacity offline in 2018, more than has been retired in a single year since 2015 (when 14.7 GW of coal capacity was retired). Another 19.8 GW of coal-fired power plant capacity is scheduled to go offline between 2018 and 2022.) So much for Trump’s promises to the coal industry.
These coal plant closings have been the major factor in reducing CO2 emissions in the US over the last few years. Some of these coal plants changed over to natural gas as the fuel used to create electricity. Substantial increases in renewable energy sources, wind and solar mostly, have ramped up at substantial growth rates as well.
Converting boilers to natural gas to replace coal seemed like a step in the right direction in reducing CO2. That now does not seem to be the case. Methane leakage at wellheads has been discovered to be substantial and much greater than previously believed. Methane is also a heat trapping gas that does not stay in the atmosphere nearly as long as CO2. The impact of methane dissipates in decades not centuries. Nevertheless, it is multiple times more dangerous. I’ve seen data that says that methane can be 80 TIMES more effective in trapping heat but not for nearly as long. My point is that we need to get off of natural gas as a source of energy fast as well as coal.
I’ve gotten into much more than I anticipated in this post but wanted to provide a framework for the point of the following article. And that is:
“American utilities have made impressive progress in cutting their carbon output in recent years. Emissions from power plants fell 28 percent between 2005 and 2017, according to federal figures. Total energy-related emissions, by contrast, were down 14 percent.”
“Much of those reductions came as utilities traded coal plants for facilities fueled by natural gas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that coal to gas switching accounted for roughly two-thirds of all power sector emission reductions between 2005 and 2017.
“But falling emissions from coal plants were offset by natural gas generators, which ran harder to satisfy an increase in electricity demand.”
(Also consider that the “offset” mentioned above does not take into consideration the huge increases in methane leaks at the fracking wellheads.) Thus,
“estimates that carbon emissions from U.S. power plants increased 1.9 percent in 2018. That would mark the first emissions bump from the sector since 2013, when carbon levels rose slightly.”
“coal generation fell by 52 kilowatt-hours in the first 10 months of the year, while gas generation rose 166 kWh. Power sector carbon emissions increased by 34 million tons as a result, helping fuel an estimated 3.4 percent increase in overall U.S. carbon emissions”
In conclusion, it’s not going to be as easy as it might have seemed to switch from coal to natural gas to reduce heat trapping gasses, and natural gas may actually be worse than coal. The only alternative to save the planet is large exponential growth in renewable energy installation. And, at the same time we must also transition all of our automotive transportation to electric.
“The low-hanging fruit, swapping out coal for some combination of natural gas and renewables, is starting to get picked,” Jenkins said. “Now, the challenge is to displace gas plants with low-carbon resources.”
Read the whole article for more details below…
Inside the Troubling Rise of CO2 at Power Plants
Thursday, January 10, 2019
The power sector has long been the engine behind America’s reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.
Not anymore.
A recent analysis from the Rhodium Group, an economic consulting firm, estimates that carbon emissions from U.S. power plants increased 1.9 percent in 2018. That would mark the first emissions bump from the sector since 2013, when carbon levels rose slightly.
The development contains several worrying signs for environmental advocates. Greening the power sector is relatively easy compared to transportation and the residential and industrial sectors of the economy, where low carbon alternatives to fossil fuels are limited and more costly.
And failing to limit carbon emissions from power plants makes it more difficult to clean up tailpipes, buildings and factories. Most deep decarbonization scenarios envision using large amounts of wind, solar and other non-emitting sources of electricity generation to power cars and trucks, heat and cool homes, and fuel factories.
“To get anywhere near our climate goals, we need our electric grid to be dramatically cleaner than it is today,” said Daniel Cohan, a professor at Rice University who studies the power sector.
If power plants fail to clean up faster than other sectors of the economy, meeting the 26 percent reduction in emissions envisioned by the Paris Agreement “becomes impossible,” Cohan said.
American utilities have made impressive progress in cutting their carbon output in recent years. Emissions from power plants fell 28 percent between 2005 and 2017, according to federal figures. Total energy-related emissions, by contrast, were down 14 percent.
The trend made the power sector a bright spot for greens who are distraught by President Trump’s dismantling of environmental protections and his promotion of coal. In 2017, the U.S. was one of a few countries worldwide to post a reduction in carbon levels, thanks in large part to the continued decline in emissions from power plants (Climatewire, March 23, 2018).
Much of those reductions came as utilities traded coal plants for facilities fueled by natural gas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that coal to gas switching accounted for roughly two-thirds of all power sector emission reductions between 2005 and 2017.
But last year illustrated the limitations to that approach as a climate strategy.
Coal plant retirements approached record highs (Climatewire, Jan. 2). But falling emissions from coal plants were offset by natural gas generators, which ran harder to satisfy an increase in electricity demand.
Rhodium’s analysis found that coal generation fell by 52 kilowatt-hours in the first 10 months of the year, while gas generation rose 166 kWh. Power sector carbon emissions increased by 34 million tons as a result, helping fuel an estimated 3.4 percent increase in overall U.S. carbon emissions (Climatewire, Jan. 9).
“Gas has been rising to the challenge of meeting demand in 2018 in a way it hadn’t needed to in the past because electricity demand hadn’t risen as quickly,” said John Larsen, a former Department of Energy official in the Obama administration who leads Rhodium’s power sector research.
Part of the demand spike could be temporary. A hot summer and cold winter last year, combined with a galloping economy, meant demand for power outpaced gains in energy efficiency, which has helped mitigate rising electricity use in recent years.
Other factors point to the difficult challenges facing climate hawks. Little coal remains in the Northeast and on the West Coast, meaning future carbon reductions will have to come from elsewhere, said Jesse Jenkins, a researcher at Harvard University.
“The low-hanging fruit, swapping out coal for some combination of natural gas and renewables, is starting to get picked,” Jenkins said. “Now, the challenge is to displace gas plants with low-carbon resources.”
Whether America can add enough renewables to significantly reduce gas generation and its resulting emissions is an open question. EIA estimates that wind will account for 46 percent of all new power plant capacity in 2019, the last year for the federal wind production tax credit. Gas and solar, by comparison, represent 32 percent and 18 percent of new capacity, respectively. But gas overtakes wind as the top source of new capacity in 2020 and 2021, according to federal projections.
When renewables are brought online, their emissions impact could be mitigated by the retirement of nuclear plants. Offshore wind in the Northeast will largely replace power from a series of retiring nuclear facilities in the region, analysts noted.
The dynamic speaks to the continued need for new policies to drive power sector reductions, they said. California recently passed a bill requiring all of its electricity to come from carbon-free sources by 2045. And several newly elected Democratic governors have signaled they intend to follow suit with similar plans.
But analysts said action at the federal level is needed to ensure that emissions reductions from the power sector don’t stall out.
“We’ve been saying there will be a limit to what increasingly cheap renewables and continuously cheap natural gas can deliver with respect to emissions,” Larsen said. “We’re not done yet.”
