Over the decades that I have been writing these articles I have reported on a number of themes most of which relate to climate change. Of course, when writing about different themes referring to the same topic they logically compliment each other. I thought that today, rather than featuring one topic, I’d highlight several that are all intertwined. Thus, I am highlighting seven different articles that I hope creates a macro impression.
The articles weave together a tapestry of science, the impact of science (i.e. the consequences of a warmer planet), finances, energy, government policy and real estate values. Below I will display the article title and one quote from it (in green in case you hadn’t yet figured out my color scheme). There will either be a link to the whole article or it will be attached at the bottom in full. I hope this will help crystalize the profound comprehensive impact that the warming climate is having on so many central elements of our lives.
As I read over these headlines and try to absorb the enormity of these topics I find it literally breathtaking. Seeing all this together at one glance reenforces the mess we’re in, how rapidly the events are occurring and the urgent response needed to maintain any semblance of life as we know it.
It’s no wonder that there is increasingly quickening and dramatic actions being taken to adopt to and mitigate a quickly deteriorating environment.
Earth Hasn’t Warmed This Fast in Tens of Millions of Years
Friday, September 11, 2020
“Transitions from one state to another have generally depended on changing greenhouse gas levels, often driven by volcanic eruptions and other natural processes, and shifts in the Earth’s orbit that affected the amount of solar energy reaching the planet.
In the hottest phases, more than 50 million years ago, temperatures on Earth were more than 10 degrees Celsius hotter than they are today. But it’s important to note that it took the planet thousands or even millions of years to reach these levels — and that was long before humans ever walked the Earth.
That’s in stark contrast to the kind of climate change that human activity is driving today.”
How Record-Smashing Heat Invited Infernos to the West
Friday, September 11, 2020
“Wildfires have been the main result of the record August temperatures. But the heat also intensified drought conditions in the West, threatening farmers, ranchers and ski resorts.
“Lots of farmers and agriculture communities are facing a season cut short or maybe a season that didn’t materialize at all,” said Jon Meyer, a researcher at the Utah Climate Center and member of a state committee that monitors drought conditions. “The state is really pinching water sources, trying to preserve as much water through the rest of the year.””
Federal Report Warns of Financial Havoc From Climate Change
September 8, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/climate/climate-change-financial-markets.html?mc_cid=5642daa222&mc_eid=8f4760cc57
“A report commissioned by federal regulators overseeing the nation’s commodities markets has concluded that climate change threatens U.S. financial markets, as the costs of wildfires, storms, droughts and floods spread through insurance and mortgage markets, pension funds and other financial institutions.
“A world wracked by frequent and devastating shocks from climate change cannot sustain the fundamental conditions supporting our financial system,” concluded the report, “Managing Climate Risk in the Financial System,” which was requested last year by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and set for release on Wednesday morning.”
Early Winners and Losers From BlackRock’s Shift on Climate Change
September 8, 2020
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/blackrock-who-are-the-winners-and-losers-of-firms-climate-push?mc_cid=5642daa222&mc_eid=8f4760cc57
“BlackRock said it would divest from companies deriving 25 percent or more of their revenue from thermal coal and push companies to make climate and sustainability disclosures aligned with the guidelines set forth by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board and the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures.
So, nine months later, is BlackRock following through?
The short answer is yes, or at least it is starting to, even if it has not moved fast or far enough to please climate activists. In the first half of 2020, more than 50 companies felt BlackRock’s disapproval over their lack of progress on climate change — including Chevron, ExxonMobil and German utility Uniper.
A spokesperson for BlackRock tells GTM that another 191 have “been put on watch” and can expect pushback in the boardroom in 2021.”
JPMorgan, BP Join Call for U.S. Carbon Pricing
September 10, 2020
“The U.S. government should start making businesses pay for their greenhouse gas emissions to help combat global warming, according to a powerful group of finance and energy titans including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BP PLC.
Climate change poses a significant risk to the financial system and regulators must “move urgently and decisively,” the group said in a report that was signed by executives from the three firms and more than two dozen other global businesses, investors and nonprofit organizations…
Extreme weather events, previewed by those the U.S. has seen all summer, “pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth,” Behnam said in a statement.”
BP, Google Shun Fossil Fuels. Will Governments Follow?
September 15, 2020
“The twin announcements by BP PLC and Google LLC highlight the sweeping changes afoot in today’s energy industry. Companies are reassessing decades-old business models to withstand a warming planet and to meet societal demands for a greener energy system.
But while many analysts praised the announcements as a positive sign, they said a true energy transition will depend on substantial government muscle to ensure other companies follow BP and Google’s lead.”
Buying a House? Now You Can See Its Flood Risk Over 30 years
August 26, 2020
“A leading real estate website with hundreds of millions of viewers is starting to display the flood risk for each of the 100 million U.S. properties it catalogs, marking a potentially dramatic shift in public awareness of flood dangers.
The unprecedented disclosures will dramatically increase the public’s understanding of flood risk and could prompt property owners and communities to mitigate potential damage as climate change intensifies flooding, analysts said.”
Earth hasn’t warmed this fast in tens of millions of years
The sediments, collected from around the world over the course of many years, allowed the researchers to reconstruct Earth’s climate history going back to the mass extinction that killed three-quarters of the planet’s species, including dinosaurs.
They found that the planet has passed through four distinct climate phases: warmhouse, hothouse, coolhouse and icehouse states.
Transitions from one state to another have generally depended on changing greenhouse gas levels, often driven by volcanic eruptions and other natural processes, and shifts in the Earth’s orbit that affected the amount of solar energy reaching the planet.
In the hottest phases, more than 50 million years ago, temperatures on Earth were more than 10 degrees Celsius hotter than they are today. But it’s important to note that it took the planet thousands or even millions of years to reach these levels — and that was long before humans ever walked the Earth.
That’s in stark contrast to the kind of climate change that human activity is driving today.
For several million years now, the world has been in an icehouse state. But that’s quickly changing. If human societies do nothing to curb their greenhouse gas emissions, in just a few centuries the Earth could once again reach a temperature threshold not seen for at least 34 million years.
Before the industrial era, such a magnitude of warming would have taken thousands of years to occur, at least.
“If you look at the worst-case scenario [by 2300], the change in mean global temperature is larger than most of the natural variability going back over the last 66 million years related to changes in the Earth’s orbit,” said Jim Zachos, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a co-author of the new study, which was published yesterday in the journal Science.
It’s not an inevitable future. With immediate and stringent action to reduce climate change, the world can keep global temperatures from rising more than a few degrees above their preindustrial levels.
But the study does warn that without these efforts, Earth is on track for some of the strongest, fastest climate change the planet has ever experienced.
The study may also provide some important insights into how climate change could unfold in the coming decades and centuries.
Earth’s climate doesn’t always shift in linear, predictable ways. There are all kinds of feedback processes that can speed things up or slow things down — such as the speed at which glaciers and sea ice melt or the way that clouds change in response to future warming.
In the ancient past, for instance, the study suggests that the world’s ice sheets played an important role in regulating the pace and predictability of the Earth’s climate response to natural changes in greenhouse gases or orbital shifts. Today, scientists believe that the world’s melting ice may also have a big impact on future climate change.
These kinds of feedback processes can make it challenging to predict future change, especially over relatively short periods of time.
Reconstructing the Earth’s long-term climate history can help scientists test the models they use to predict its future. If a model can accurately simulate the past, scientists may have more confidence in its ability to simulate present-day climate processes.
“That’s the beauty of this record,” Zachos said. “It’s something we’ve always wanted to have because of the applicability to testing climate theory.”
How record-smashing heat invited infernos to the West
Nearly three-quarters of the counties in six Western states broke monthly temperature records for August, NOAA records show. The states are Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Utah, which make up NOAA’s West and Southwest climate regions.
In Mesa County, the average temperature last month was 74.1 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s more than 7 degrees above normal for August in the county of 155,000 people — and 2.6 degrees above Mesa’s previous record for August.
“This was probably the most extreme single summer month that we’ve ever seen in western Colorado,” said Russ Schumacher, Colorado’s state climatologist, noting that wildfires were also fueled by extreme dry conditions. “In some places, like Arizona and parts of California, it was the hottest summer on record.”
In Arizona and Utah, every county set a record for the highest average monthly temperature in August, NOAA records show. The average August temperature in each of Utah’s 29 counties was at least 5 degrees above normal.
In California, where wildfires have burned a record 3.1 million acres this year, 34 of the state’s 58 counties set a monthly temperature record for August.
Each of the six states also had its highest statewide average monthly temperature for August. California’s average temperature of 79 degrees last month was 5.3 degrees above normal in the state for August.
August heat will have “a carryover effect” in California, University of Colorado fire scientist Jennifer Balch said, making forests and grasslands drier than normal and primed for ignition when the state’s peak wildfire season begins next month with the arrival of strong winds.
“Because fire is so spontaneous, it takes just a little bit of warming to have a lot more burning,” Balch said.
California wildfires have already burned an area the size of Connecticut this year while destroying nearly 6,000 structures and killing 12 people, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The 3.1 million acres burned in California in 2020 is well ahead of the annual record of 2 million acres, set in 2018.
The three California counties that saw the biggest spike in August temperatures — Alameda, Contra Costa and San Joaquin — are at the heart of the 400,000-acre SCU Lightning Complex fires, which began Aug. 18 east of San Jose and as of yesterday were nearly contained.
Wildfires have been the main result of the record August temperatures. But the heat also intensified drought conditions in the West, threatening farmers, ranchers and ski resorts.
“Lots of farmers and agriculture communities are facing a season cut short or maybe a season that didn’t materialize at all,” said Jon Meyer, a researcher at the Utah Climate Center and member of a state committee that monitors drought conditions. “The state is really pinching water sources, trying to preserve as much water through the rest of the year.”
Schumacher said the August heat combined with dry conditions to sharply reduce reservoir levels and streamflow, which could lead to restrictions such as water rationing next year.
“If we don’t have a good snowpack year this winter, next summer is when the impacts are really going to come out in terms of water resources,” Schumacher said.
‘Loading the dice’
The record August temperatures across the West are part of longer-term national and global warming trends in the past five years.
But in many Western counties, August was insanely hot.
In 23 counties, the average temperature last month was at least 10% higher than normal for August.
Thirty-one counties broke the previous record for average August temperatures by at least 2 degrees.
In total, 155 of the 216 counties in the six states had their hottest August on record. For another 20 counties, last month was the second-hottest August. And 19 counties had their third-hottest August.
The “coldest” county in the six states — Baca County, Colo. — had an average temperature that was just 1.5 degrees above normal.
Oregon and Washington, which have seen massive wildfires spread in recent days, had hotter-than-average temperatures in August but did not set records.
Meyer, the Utah climate researcher, hesitated to attribute the August temperatures to climate change.
“These kind of years certainly would have happened in the past,” he said. “But with climate change, we’re loading the dice, creating a more favorable scenario for those type of years to occur more frequently.
“I’m not sure we can say climate change this year is doing this,” Meyer added. “But this could be the new normal we could expect at the back end of this century.”
Balch of the University of Colorado said the increasing temperatures, dry conditions and development in forested areas aren’t easily changed.
“I’m not expecting this trend to change anytime soon,” she said. “We’re not going to solve the fire problem that’s now a function of climate change by reducing our emissions. We’re kind of stuck with this situation.”
JPMorgan, BP join call for U.S. carbon pricing
Extreme weather events, previewed by those the U.S. has seen all summer, “pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth,” Behnam said in a statement.
Calls by corporate executives for a tougher government stance have had little success during President Trump’s administration as officials have reversed policies implemented to cut emissions and the U.S. is withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. Yesterday’s report includes a series of non-binding recommendations, but it could serve as a blueprint if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the White House in November.
Carbon pricing
The U.S. should price greenhouse gas pollution to ensure that financial markets reduce risks “consistent with the Paris Agreement,” the report said. Its authors stressed how unprepared financial markets are to deal with climate change, warning that without a carbon price “capital will continue to flow in the wrong direction, rather than toward accelerating the transition to a net-zero emissions economy.”
Using carbon pricing to lower emissions has seen some success in Europe, where the rising cost of allowances and cheaper natural gas have helped reduce the role of coal in the power sector, leading to an 8.3% drop in emissions last year. The U.S. has some regional carbon markets, led by California’s, but nothing close to Europe’s scale.
Bob Litterman, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive and founding partner of Kepos Capital who chairs the CFTC advisory committee, led the call for U.S. carbon pricing in the group’s report. Litterman has spent much of the last decade writing and speaking about how a basic economic principle — that people respond to price incentives — applies to climate change. Carbon dioxide emissions inflict a cost on society that is not reflected in market energy prices, he has argued, and a carbon price is the most efficient way to fix it.
Nathaniel Bullard, chief content officer of BloombergNEF, is a member of the CFTC climate-risk subcommittee, which also included representatives from Marsh & McLennan Cos., Citigroup Inc., Cargill Inc. and ConocoPhillips.
A unanimous report from such a diverse collection of authors could also be a political signal to the ultimate authority in carbon policy: the U.S. Congress. There are existing laws that enable regulators to help markets deal with climate risk, including mandating material disclosures to protect investors and ensuring institutions have the ability to absorb climate-related losses.
Still, the threat goes beyond the finance industry, according to Jesse Keenan, a Tulane University professor who was an editor of the report. “This isn’t just about Wall Street,” he said. “This is about the entirety of the U.S. financial system, and that includes our housing and labor markets as well.” — Eric Roston and Ben Bain, Bloomberg
Buying a house? Now you can see its flood risk over 30 years
The unprecedented disclosures will dramatically increase the public’s understanding of flood risk and could prompt property owners and communities to mitigate potential damage as climate change intensifies flooding, analysts said.
“The more data, the better,” said Laura Lightbody, who has advocated for disclosure laws as project director of the flood-prepared communities initiative at the Pew Charitable Trusts.
Joel Scata of the Natural Resources Defense Council said the information “will address a major shortcoming,” though he added that laws are still needed to inform prospective homebuyers of a property’s flood history.
Realtor.com attracts 86 million visitors a month and is the 78th-most visited website among U.S. browsers, according to Alexa.
The flood score is derived from a groundbreaking nationwide analysis released in June by the nonprofit First Street Foundation, which estimated current and future flood risk of 140 million properties.
The scores range from 1 through 10, with 1 indicating minimal flood risk over the duration of a 30-year mortgage and 10 indicating an extreme risk.
Visitors who click on a flood score will connect to First Street’s website, floodfactor.com, that shows each property’s chance of flooding over the next 30 years and flood risks in the neighborhood and the county. Floodfactor.com also shows the number of properties flooded in recent major storms but does not show which properties were flooded.
First Street’s unprecedented parcel-by-parcel modeling drew national attention by showing that the number of properties facing a 1% annual chance of being flooded is roughly twice as large as estimated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The First Street analysis also shows that the number of at-risk properties will increase from 14.6 million to 16.2 million by 2050.
“Every homeowner and homebuyer benefits from this,” First Street founder and Executive Director Matthew Eby said of the data-sharing agreement with realtor.com. “The owners now have what wasn’t available before — a full-parcel understanding of flood risk today and how it will change over the next 30 years as the environment changes.”
Realtor.com will show the flood score and flood zone that each property occupies according to FEMA maps that establish whether a property sits inside a high-risk area and must be covered by flood insurance.
Flood data for the masses
The disclosures could forestall situations in which homebuyers back out of purchases at the last minute when they find out that a property they were planning to buy has significant flood risk, said Leslie Jordan of realtor.com.
“It’s best for consumers to understand this data early in the process,” Jordan said.
The flood information also could give realtor.com an advantage over competitors such as Trulia and Zillow.
“This is the only site that’s going to be able to provide [information on] one of the most costly natural disasters and help people understand what they need to have in place to protect themselves,” Jordan said.
Realtor.com lists owner-occupied homes, rentals and units that are for sale or off the market. It provides information such as home size, sales history, estimated value and comparable homes. Realtor.com calls itself the official site of the National Association of Realtors, a trade association for 1.4 million real estate agents and other professionals.
The disclosures could depress property values in areas with significant flood risk, particularly in inland areas where the threat may not be as apparent as in coastal regions.
“The data will bring the true risk to the forefront for a bunch of areas where people maybe thought the risk wasn’t that high from precipitation or riverine flooding,” Eby of First Street said.
He called the disclosures a consumer protection tool that will give individuals the same information as institutional investors who use sophisticated flood analyses to decide where they should and shouldn’t invest in real estate.
“What we see ourselves doing is democratizing that data so we’re leveling the playing field,” Eby said.
Lightbody of Pew agreed.
“This empowers consumers more,” she said. “At the very minimum, this provides consumers more information to make an informed choice. Prior to this, there was very little information out there.”
Lightbody also praised realtor.com and First Street for disclosing flood risk for rental properties “because that is often left out of these discussions.”
The disclosures come as environmental advocates and lawmakers push for federal and state laws that would require homebuyers to be told about the flood history of a property they are considering purchasing.
Those laws are still needed “to truly provide a complete picture of a home’s flood risk,” said Scata of NRDC. “A home that has flooded once is capable of being hit again, especially as flooding becomes more common due to climate change.”