Most of you know that my career was mostly in the automobile business basically my whole life but full time from 1976 to 2009. That is why I have a keen interest and insight into the industry. That shows up in this blog as I continue to read the Automotive News weekly and follow the business in other ways as well. And this week’s main focus is going to be automotive.
I read the following comment in an Automotive News OpEd piece in the 9/20/21 edition which really disturbed me.
“Any idea that roads in the U.S. and other major nations will be dominated by battery-electric vehicles in 20 years’ time is fantastical ”
https://www.autonews.com/commentary/francois-mallette-separate-ev-hype-reality
The article goes on to warn primarily the automotive supply chain not to worry or bet their future on transitioning to an EV footing. Of course the author, an industry consultant, is entitled to his opinion. But I think that anyone that follows that advice is going to “drive” their business off a cliff.
I am firmly on the record since 2014 predicting that at least 90% of new cars (and it is looking more and more like this will also include light duty trucks) sold by 2030 will be fully electric or drive at least 90% on electricity. Obviously, that was pretty bold at that time but that reality is getting more and more likely.
Here’s a couple current articles that speak to that increasingly likely reality.
EV Sales Have Doubled. Is a ‘Tidal Wave’ Coming?
E&E Climatewire 10/1/2021
““EV sales are pretty much going gangbusters””
“Electric vehicle sales are booming in the U.S., with purchases nearly doubling over a year ago. That trend is chipping away at the long-held narrative that drivers aren’t ready for electric cars, and it’s leading some analysts to recalibrate their predictions.
“We used to have a lot of very definitive forecasts,” said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power, a global consumer intelligence company based in Michigan. “We’ve had to kind of blow those up because the rate of adoption is going much quicker.”
Last year, electric vehicles accounted for about 2 percent of all car sales. This summer, that number jumped to nearly 5 percent of light-duty vehicles like SUVs and sedans and more than 20 percent of all passenger vehicles sales, according to recent data (Climatewire, Sept. 24).”
One point that I’ve made over and over is that every prediction about how quickly EVs will be adopted is continually being moved forward as is referred to above. And do you think this is not going to continue to occur? Do you honestly think that the timeline that is being postulated today is going to be the last one to be shortened?
The article goes on to say this.
““You see automakers moving to start building EV-only assembly plants and announcing these new battery manufacturing facilities — to me that says they’re betting their business on EVs.””
“A Consumer Reports survey published last year found that 7 in 10 adults in the U.S. with a valid driver’s license were interested in getting an EV. But that interest tripled for drivers who had had direct experience with one, whether that was driving an EV, riding in one or knowing someone who owns one.
“So those network effects are starting to take hold as more and more people buy and own EVs,””
“while EVs still make up a small percentage of the overall market, analysts say the writing is on the wall. “The bottom line is the investment dollars are now all going toward EVs, which means that the tidal wave is coming,””
To further emphasize the point, another article in The Atlantic on 9/28/2021 has the following to say.
Electric Cars Have Hit an Inflection Point
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2021/09/electric-cars-have-hit-inflection-point/620233/?mc_cid=a6c9f008d0&mc_eid=8f4760cc57
A few years ago, the standard forecast was that half of new cars sold in the U.S. would be electric by 2050. That timeline has moved up significantly not only in America, but around the world.
Nine percent of new cars sold globally this year will be EVs or plug-in hybrids, according to S&P Global. That’s up from 3 percent two years ago, a staggering, iPhone-like rise.
The auto industry as a whole will pump more than $500 billion into EV investment by 2030. (And that’s only what has been announced as of now!)
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But if mass adoption of electric cars was hitting an inflection point, wouldn’t it look, well, something like this?
To further illustrate the point there’s this.
Ford Unveils Record $11B Bet on Sprawling EV Factories
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2021/09/28/ford-unveils-record-11b-bet-on-sprawling-ev-factories-281242
“”This is a really pivotal moment for us,” said Lisa Drake, Ford’s chief operating officer for North America. She added that the company’s $7 billion expenditure is the largest single investment in the company’s history.
“This is truly a staggering project,””
To get an idea of how gargantuan is the project and commitment.
“The factory will be about three times the size of Ford’s Kansas City 1,269-acre plant, the company’s largest. It also would be Ford’s first all-new, wholly owned factory since 1969”
OK. Enough about cars and trucks. Here’s two more very current articles about other topics about which I have been writing: weather and insurance. Last week there was an article about how the government was raising the rates for flood insurance beginning 10/1. Here’s an example of what is happening.
National Flood Insurance Is Changing. Some Homeowners Face Huge Premium Increases
https://www.wsj.com/articles/national-flood-insurance-is-changing-some-homeowners-face-huge-premium-increases-11633096411
Wall Street Journal 10/1/2021
“Chris Dailey and his wife are building a new home in coastal St. Petersburg, Fla., that will sit 7 feet above the flood level expected during a major storm. So he was stunned to learn that under the federal flood insurance program’s revamped pricing, his annual premium is slated to soar to $4,986 from $441.”
And lastly, here’s another article about the Jet Stream. I’m confused though since previous articles have been about how the Jet Stream is already being impacted by climate change, the warming planet. It was discussed regarding the cause of the Polar Vortex in particular. Nevertheless, there should be real concern about what might be the impact of a shift in the Jet Stream whenever it happens.
Jet Stream Carrying Extreme Weather Could Shift in 40 Years
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2021/09/20/jet-stream-carrying-extreme-weather-could-shift-in-40-years-280760
Climate Wire 9/20/2021
“The North Atlantic jet stream, a fast-moving air current circling the Northern Hemisphere, may migrate northward in the coming decades if strong global warming continues.
The consequences could be dramatic: shifts in rainfall patterns across the midlatitudes and an increase in droughts, heat waves, floods and other extreme weather events in Europe and the eastern U.S.”
“A new study finds that the jet stream could shift outside the bounds of its historic range within just a few decades”
