The world around us is changing fast. And as much change as we’ve seen in the last week, especially since Wednesday, it’s going to accelerate and it’s hard to imagine what life will be like a week from now much less in a month. I hope you are taking this pandemic extremely seriously and staying home and isolated. Even if you are not in the highly vulnerable category you could easily pass on the virus to someone like me and Debbie who are and that could be fatal. Not only are we both over 60 but, as I’ve mentioned before, Deb has asthma. With this virus attacking the lungs and causing pneumonia we are taking extreme measures to stay safe and are on total isolation for as long as necessary. Unfortunately, probably in terms of months, not days or weeks. But we simply are not going to take any chances.
That said, we are going to try and maintain some sense of normalcy. Walking the dogs, working out, reading amongst other daily routines, and, in my case writing this blog. I’ll probably be writing more often than usual since we’re staying home all the time now. And I hope that it gives you also some degree of consistency in a world around us that is now unimaginable in so many ways.
Below I’ve posted two articles. One from this morning and another from last Friday. They both report on climate and the pandemic and how the two relate to each other.
The first addresses the new State of the Global Climate Report released on last Tuesday at the annual World Meteorological Association meeting.
“Spoiler alert: It’s not good.”
The report reiterates and reenforces what I have been saying for years:
“Irreversible changes may start reshaping the world’s ecosystems as soon as the next few years, …Once these changes begin, researchers warn, the transformation will be rapid.”
Consistent with what I’ve been reporting, climate change events are happening frighteningly sooner than had been anticipated by many talking heads. And positive feedback loops are being created that will result in more and more rapidly increasing negative consequences that are going to push us past the point of no return. This will increasing lead to:
“Disruptions to natural systems inevitably lead to disruptions in social systems.”
How does this relate to the rapidly unfolding Pandemic?
“The impacts of the new coronavirus and climate change may arrive on drastically different timelines, but experts say the pandemic provides a snapshot into what could happen when global warming reaches its zenith and imperils financial stability worldwide.”
“”In both cases, governments have been totally incompetent in terms of pricing the risk. And people will suffer hugely,””
“”What this virus shows in many ways is climate in warp speed,””
The second article points out, though, that hopefully, the economic consequences of the Pandemic will fade over time and life will return to some semblance of “normal” for those that survive. But the impact of climate change will be permanent.
“The economic impacts of climate change, on the other hand, are the opposite of a situation with short-term implications. It will force “permanent changes in risk profiles and behaviors” that will last far into the future,””
With all the anxiety that we are all feeling this morning I am sorry to bring you this message. But maybe our country’s lack of vision and leadership in confronting the Pandemic in a rational and proactive manner will provide some inspiration for us to not let this happen as badly regarding the Climate. It’s a wake up call we all should heed.
Bloomberg Green
Energy & Science
Several Global Tipping Points May Have Arrived
By Josh Petri
March 13, 2020
The Himalayas. Photographer: Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg
If it feels as if you’re living through some sort of massive global tipping point, that’s because it’s very possible you are.
The World Meteorological Association on Tuesday released its annual State of the Global Climate Report. Spoiler alert: It’s not good. The organization projects 22 million people were displaced by extreme weather last year, up from 17.2 million the year before. Temperatures in 2019 were on average 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, making it the second-warmest year on record.
In a foreword to the report, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wrote that the findings indicate the world is far from achieving the goals outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate, and illustrate “the urgency for far-reaching climate action.”
Irreversible changes may start reshaping the world’s ecosystems as soon as the next few years, according to a new study published this week in Nature Communications. The cause is, of course, ongoing pollution and degradation of earth systems. Once these changes begin, researchers warn, the transformation will be rapid. The Amazon rainforests could become open savanna with 50 years, while Caribbean coral reefs might die off in just 15 years.
Disruptions to natural systems inevitably lead to disruptions in social systems. The melting glaciers of the Himalayas have become a political tool in the tussle between China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Water is now a weapon.
Markets are feeling the effects as well. Extreme weather events, coupled with the spread of coronavirus, are unsettling global crop production and raising the risk of food inflation.
Oil markets have recently been rocked by a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, causing crude prices to plummet (they were already sinking thanks to the pandemic). Green investments have soared since the last oil price crash in 2014, with more than $1.2 trillion poured into renewable energy in the years since.
Today, there’s less risk of a slide back into fossil-fuel’s oily embrace, experts say. Renewable energy is a more mature industry than five years ago. Now a less risky investment, it’s attracted big investors who have showered it with a lot of cash while building projects that rival the capacity of conventional power plants. At the same time, oil exploration is becoming less economically viable. And with projects like the European Union’s own Green Deal at the top of voters’ minds, there’s little risk politicians will forget about the global climate emergency.
ECONOMY
COVID-19 Mimics Climate Catastrophe at ‘Warp Speed’
Avery Ellfeldt, E&E Reporter
Monday March 16,2020
The impacts of the new coronavirus and climate change may arrive on drastically different timelines, but experts say the pandemic provides a snapshot into what could happen when global warming reaches its zenith and imperils financial stability worldwide.
The virus, which shot across the globe in a little over three months, has already jolted the global economy. The U.S. stock market has plummeted in step with school closures, mounting public alarm and widespread calls for self-imposed “social distancing.”
Bob Litterman, the former head of risk management at Goldman Sachs, said that is due in part to government inaction. He sees similarities between the government’s failures on the coronavirus and climate change.
“In both cases, governments have been totally incompetent in terms of pricing the risk. And people will suffer hugely,” Litterman said.
Early signs of the novel coronavirus began in Wuhan, China, as early as November. The country responded by scaling up testing and enforcing mandatory isolation. In the time since, the world has watched as the virus peaked and then plateaued in China — even as it took off in other countries that remained unwilling to take the same measures.
The U.S. is among them. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) told E&E News that while other nations are spearheading aggressive mitigation efforts, “the U.S. is not evaluating the risk and not compensating for the risk. And therefore leaving us far more exposed.”
Climate change is also projected to threaten worker productivity, disrupt supply chains, damage infrastructure and more — spurring economies around the world to falter as soon as 2030. According to a recent report by the McKinsey Global Institute, those impacts put trillions of dollars at risk (Climatewire, Jan. 17).
“What this virus shows in many ways is climate in warp speed,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University. “Climate change is all about the rate of change — what happens eventually, right? Temperatures have already increased by 1 degree globally, and that is bad. But it’s about the change, what will happen later.”
Some analysts believe that the onus ultimately falls on the federal government — not ordinary citizens or businesses — to ensure that precarious situations don’t become irreversible in the long-term.
“Everything in the economy is interlinked in a certain way that if you change one piece, it affects other things. … [P]eople are still behaving as though they always have, and that change can be slow unless it’s forced,” said Roelof Slump, a managing director at the prominent credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings.
