Those of you who have been getting and receiving my postings know that I make a lot of predictions based on data but using my premonitions and judgement to forecast what is coming often long before the “experts” will. And when what I have projected comes to pass, I love to say “I told you so!”. Sure, I have an ego and like to stroke it when I’m right, which is almost always. In fact, I don’t recall an instance when I have been totally off. Do you?
So, today I’m going to start with that, showing you that what I told you was going to come about. I have consistently said that timelines for change were going to happen much sooner than is commonly believed and that the “experts” were predicting. Furthermore, I also have reiterated that whenever the “experts” move forward their timeline it won’t be the last time they do so.
This first article is an example of that once again. But, after that, there is no particular theme for today’s communication. Rather, I am going to post links to a variety of topics (Insurance, Fossil Fuel/Energy, Extreme Weather, Transportation, Economic Impact) about which I write often and you can determine if there are ones into which you want to delve more deeply.
This is from BloombergHyperdrive on Friday October 29th.
“Carmakers are racing to make EVs after years of decrying them as unprofitable, and they’ve been caught off guard by their appeal with buyers (emissions rules forced their hand, too). BloombergNEF already has boosted its 2021 EV sales forecast for North America 20% since the start of the year to 690,000. That figure, which includes plug-in hybrids, would probably be higher if there were enough chips to go around.”
Insurance:
The $5 Trillion Insurance Industry Faces a Reckoning. Blame Climate Change.
Insurers are getting rocked by climate disasters.
https://www.vox.com/22686124/climate-change-insurance-flood-wildfire-hurricane-risk?mc_cid=746ef1dd96&mc_eid=8f4760cc57
October 15, 2021
“In the first half of 2021, disasters inflicted a staggering $42 billion in losses covered by insurance, a 10-year high. Then in September, Hurricane Ida cut a path of destruction through the Gulf Coast and flooded neighborhoods from Louisiana to New Jersey, causing between $31 billion and $44 billion in insured losses. Ida now ranks among the top five costliest storms in US history.”
“Insurance is big business, and it’s one of the most powerful industries shaping action on climate change. The global insurance sector topped $5 trillion in 2021, according to Research and Markets, which is in the same ballpark as the entire US federal budget.”
“But when disasters like major hurricanes or torrential rainfall strike, even reinsurance companies can face a crunch. In recent years, the cost of reinsurance policies has risen. Swiss Re expects that climate change will expand the pool of at-risk properties by 33 to 41 percent by 2040, generating $149 billion to $183 billion in new premiums but also increasing the potential payouts.
The biggest fear is that a massive climate-linked disaster, or multiple disasters back to back, could create compounding losses that don’t scale up in a neat straight line. “It doesn’t get gradually worse; it gets exponentially worse over time,” Javanmardian said.”
What Could Finally Stop New Coal Plants? Pulling the Plug on their Insurance.
How insurance giants might accomplish what generations of climate activists have not.
Washington Post, October 27, 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/10/26/climate-change-insurance-coal/?mc_cid=d445fdbe98&mc_eid=8f4760cc57
“Thomas Buberl, chief executive of Axa, the giant French underwriting firm, is leading a coalition of eight major insurers called the Net Zero Insurance Alliance. The goal, he said in an interview, is to have “all the insurers applying a methodology to only underwrite companies directed toward climate transition and not to the dark ages of burning coal.””
Fossil Fuels/Energy:
Utility Eyes Earlier Shutdown of Lake Michigan Power Plant
| 10/29/2021
“Northern Indiana Public Service Co. said it now plans to retire its electricity generating plant in Michigan City between 2026 and 2028 rather than the previous shutdown target of 2028. NIPSCO will turn to solar, energy storage and upgrades at its Sugar Creek Generating Station near Terre Haute to replace the generating capacity”
Oil to Geothermal: Renewable Game Changer?
“developments in geothermal technology will make it possible to scale up the number of active wells to more than 10,000 globally by the end of the decade and support a total installed capacity of 36 gigawatts in 2030 — more than double the capacity in 2021.
In the U.S., the world’s leading producer of geothermal electricity, generation could increase by 26-fold by 2050 if restricting factors are addressed, according to a 2019 DOE report. The agency said that although geothermal offers “enormous untapped potential” as a renewable energy solution, growth in the industry has been constrained both by conventional technology and by the lack of public support for developing geothermal resources.”
Weather/Climate Change Impact:
Rainfall Records Fall Across Northern Nev., from Reno to Ely
Great Salt Lake’s Demise Spurs Water Emergency for Utah
E&E News 10/12/2021
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2021/10/12/great-salt-lakes-demise-spurs-water-emergency-for-utah-281704
“Utah’s iconic Great Salt Lake, long neglected by regulators, is collapsing due to a historic drought and climate change.
And, in a cruel twist, the demise of the lake — which shriveled to a record low level in July — may threaten Utah’s posh ski towns and even the state’s water supply.”
Transportation:
Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos Among Supporters of Mich. Startup’s Hybrid Battery Approach for EVs
Battery startup Our Next Energy closed its series A funding round, raising $25 million.
‘Now Ijaz believes he has developed battery technology to make trips of up to 800 miles per charge possible, and he has the financial backing to embark on transforming the technology into a commercial product.”
The EV Battery Supply Chain Has a Well-Kept Secret
Scientists are now playing with battery architecture and chemicals to make ambitious bets on what may ultimately lead to a more realistic path to mass electrification.
Bloomberg Opinion October 18, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-18/looking-for-next-ev-supply-chain-winners-where-south-korea-may-lead-the-way
“as daunting as getting into the basic science of batteries may seem, it’s where the real progress is likely to happen.”
“This part is predominantly made of graphite. As cathodes hit their limits of energy density, chemists are now looking for materials that could make the anode more efficient. This will determine key factors for electric cars, like how fast they can be charged, and make more practical battery technology for the cars that — sooner or later — we will all have to drive.”
Economic Impact:
Report: Climate Change Threatens to Devastate the World’s Leading Economic Powers — Including the U.S.
“The world’s largest economies will suffer severe human and economic consequences of climate change, especially if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new study from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), an Italian research center.
“From droughts, heatwaves and sea level rise, to dwindling food supplies and threats to tourism — these findings show how severely climate change will hit the world’s biggest economies, unless we act now,””
“It found that climate change impacts such as extreme heat and sea level rise are already causing death and destruction in the world’s leading economies, and that if climate change continues unabated, it will also lead to new plagues that proliferate in warmer climates. With medium to high emissions, as temperatures rise in the northern U.S., the Zika virus — which has previously been locally transmitted within the country only in Florida and Texas — could threaten 83 percent of the population by 2050. More than 92 percent of U.S. residents could be at risk from dengue fever.”
Floods Threaten a Quarter of Critical Infrastructure in U.S.
BloombergGreen October 10, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-flood-risk-critical-infrastructure/?cmpid=BBD101121_OUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=211011&utm_campaign=openamericas#:~:text=Nearly%20a%20quarter%20of%20U.S.,more%20visible%20to%20the%20public.
“If the floods don’t get you, lack of electricity or a swamped hospital might.
Nearly a quarter of U.S. critical infrastructure—utilities, airports, police stations and more—is at risk of being inundated by flooding”
“In addition to critical infrastructure, the report assesses commercial buildings, millions of miles of roads and socially important institutions such as schools and museums.”
“”our nation’s infrastructure is not built to a standard that protects against the level of flood risk we face today, let alone how those risks will grow over the next 30 years,””
