There’s been several articles this week that describe how we are inexorably headed for a carbon free, mostly, electric future in transportation. There have been, and still are, skeptics that don’t believe that we will get to the point by 2030, or 2035 at the latest, when every mass produced car in the US will be fully electric much less light duty trucks and SUVs or especially heavy duty trucks.
Even I was not prepared to predict so much transition so fast. Now though, it is looking more and more like it may actually happen. In this past week’s Automotive News Opinion column that they write
(https://www.autonews.com/editorial/time-us-embrace-ev)
they say:
“The auto industry today has begun to launch a broad array of promising battery-electric vehicles that are roughly competitive with those that burn fossil fuels in terms of capabilities and price.
The debate over the wisdom of converting the world’s automotive fleet from fossil fuels to electrical propulsion is now largely moot: Emissions from personal transportation needs to be reduced dramatically, so if people are going to continue owning vehicles, evermore of them will need electric drivetrains.”
When Automotive News speaks, people listen! The barriers to EV adoption are falling swiftly. Performance:no contest, EVs are better. Price? See above. Range anxiety? The newer models will be able to drive 300+ miles on a single charge. That distance will easily cover somewhere north of 90% of all daily driving. And that capacity is growing fast. Charging? There are more and more endeavors and $$$$$$ being invested in fast charging infrastructure. Battery costs are dropping dramatically. Charging times are as well. And the batteries are getting lighter and smaller.
We’re getting closer and closer to the moment when it will simply be a stupid decision to buy an ICE and if you do you’ll be a social pariah.
Leave it to the Israelis.
“A startup backed by a European oil giant says it has built a cell that fills most of a battery in five minutes, an advancement that could transform electric vehicle charging if it’s scaled up to cars and trucks.”
OK. I admit that there are big hurdles to go over before this technology finds it’s way to our everyday vehicles but there are more and more stories like this one and BILLIONS of $$$$$$ of going into the R&D. It WILL happen.
Then there’s this…
“The price of lithium-ion batteries fell for the first time this year to levels that would allow automakers to produce electric vehicles for the same cost as gas cars, according to an analysis this morning by market researcher BloombergNEF.
Clean energy analysts have long cited $100 per kilowatt-hour as the crucial price point for lithium-ion battery packs used in EVs. That threshold may have been eclipsed this year in an isolated number of cases involving electric buses and commercial vehicles sold in China, BloombergNEF said.”
I see lots of articles about the need to build an extensive system of charging stations. I agree that this will be needed along our highway systems for people driving long distances. Tesla has such a system. But other than that, I don’t see the big need to have a huge public charging system. Most people will want to charge either at home or work.
Mostly at home at night at hours when the charges are lowest. Rather than pumping billions of dollars into these public charging stations in malls or elsewhere like that we would be better served by creating incentives or subsidies for people to install 220 charging in their homes or parking garages in multifamily housing. Almost everyone will be able to drive all day without charging before coming home.
Here’s more:
“A battery that regulates its own temperature could hold the key to the development of fast-charging electric vehicles that cost less than most new gas-guzzling cars.
Researchers at Pennsylvania State University say they have developed an EV battery that achieves that cost milestone, potentially opening up the door for more widespread EV use across the country. The battery also solves another issue reported in some EVs: Even in subfreezing temperatures, the researchers’ “thermally modulated” lithium-ion battery can charge within 10 minutes without compromising the battery life, according to the study published this week in Nature Energy.”
“”In a nutshell, we have developed the [thermally modulated] battery for $25,000 electric cars that race like luxury sport cars, have no range anxiety thanks to 10-min convenient rechargeability, are safer than any currently on the market, and use zero cobalt,” Wang said.”
What about air travel you say? In the past I’ve written about how electric planes are already being flown and even are in limited commercial use. And now this from Boeing…
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Boeing is setting an ambitious target to advance the long-term sustainability of commercial aviation, committing that its commercial airplanes are capable and certified to fly on 100% sustainable aviation fuels by 2030. Boeing has previously conducted successful test flights replacing petroleum jet fuel with 100% sustainable fuels to address the urgent challenge of climate change.
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According to the Air Transport Action Group, U.S. Department of Energy and several other scientific studies, sustainable aviation fuels reduce CO2 emissions by up to 80% over the fuel’s life cycle with the potential to reach 100% in the future.
All this is simply to say that in 10 years the future of transportation will not be recognizable based on today’s reality. Busses and heavy duty trucks are heading the same direction.
Stay tuned and pay attention. The change is coming and as I’ve often said, it will be fast and furious. And none too soon if we want half a chance to save the planet.
Startup Reveals EV Battery That Charges in 5 minutes
David Ferris
Wednesday, January 20, 2021
A startup backed by a European oil giant says it has built a cell that fills most of a battery in five minutes, an advancement that could transform electric vehicle charging if it’s scaled up to cars and trucks.
The Israeli startup StoreDot released a video demonstrating technology that could fill the battery of an electric scooter from 15% charge to full within five minutes.
“We first showed it on a mobile phone; now we are showing it on a scooter, and the next level is to show it on a full electric vehicle,” said the company’s CEO, Doron Myersdorf, on the video.
The news came as General Motors Co., America’s largest automaker, made strides toward building electric delivery vans and automated people-movers.
Charging a battery at such a clip would be a huge step for electric vehicles. The fastest, 350-kilowatt chargers available today can mostly fill the battery of a long-range electric car in half an hour.
But there are high barriers to clear before this ultrafast solution could find its way to an actual car. StoreDot hasn’t yet assembled the sort of battery pack that would go in a vehicle. Also, a full-size car needs a much larger battery than a scooter does.
The charging station to fill that battery would demand a huge and instantaneous draw from the electric grid, which could be expensive and difficult for a utility to build.
StoreDot said it had achieved the feat by engineering its own chemical compounds for the battery components. The battery cell was manufactured by its Chinese partner, Eve Energy Co., on a line designed for standard lithium-ion batteries.
StoreDot has raised $130 million, with the latest funding round in 2018 including British oil company BP PLC, German transportation giant Daimler AG and Korean conglomerate Samsung Electronics Co.
Meanwhile, GM has made a bevy of EV-related announcements in the last few days.
Yesterday, its subsidiary Cruise, which is creating an ecosystem of automated vehicles, announced a new $2 billion funding round. It brings an important new partner on board: Microsoft.
Cruise will run its vast information technology system on Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing platform. GM, which also participated in the funding round, is making an electric, driverless passenger van for Cruise called the Origin.
The news comes as the behemoths of computing are accelerating their push into vehicles.
Rumors are circulating that Apple Inc., most famous for its iPhone, is developing a partnership with Hyundai Motor Co. to create an electric car. And last week, Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., a Chinese EV maker, declared a joint venture with Taiwan’s Foxconn to make autonomous and electric cars. Foxconn is a major supplier to Apple.
On Friday, GM provided more details on where its new electric delivery van will be made.
The BrightDrop EV600 will be produced at GM’s CAMI assembly plant in Ontario. The factory will discontinue production of the gas-powered Chevrolet Equinox as GM makes a $785 million investment to convert the facility to making electrics.
BrightDrop is a delivery platform that includes the van, a small electric pallet-mover and a technology network that could make the company a player in the worldwide delivery business (Energywire, Jan. 13).
Finally, GM said yesterday that it would unveil the Chevrolet Bolt EUV — a larger, crossover version of its staple small EV, the Chevy Bolt — on Valentine’s Day.
EV battery Prices Cross ‘historic Milestone’
David Iaconangelo E&E Reporter
Wednesday, December 16, 2020
The price of lithium-ion batteries fell for the first time this year to levels that would allow automakers to produce electric vehicles for the same cost as gas cars, according to an analysis this morning by market researcher BloombergNEF.
Clean energy analysts have long cited $100 per kilowatt-hour as the crucial price point for lithium-ion battery packs used in EVs. That threshold may have been eclipsed this year in an isolated number of cases involving electric buses and commercial vehicles sold in China, BloombergNEF said.
James Frith, head of energy storage at the firm, called it a “historic milestone” and predicted that by 2023, the average price of batteries would pass that threshold.
“Although we’re not quite there yet for passenger EVs, it shows it’s actually something that’s achievable,” he said.
Frith did not disclose which battery and bus companies were able to cross the key $100-per-kWh threshold, saying the firm had undertaken an anonymous survey.
But he noted that electric buses in China often use lithium iron phosphate batteries — a chemistry that’s cheaper but less energy dense than the nickel-based alternatives that go into many battery-electric vehicles. When sold outside of China, the price of those buses tends to rise, as companies fold in extra costs stemming from their local operations, said Frith.
The importance of achieving “price parity” for electric cars was underscored by a newly launched corporate collaborative yesterday, known as the Corporate Electric Vehicle Alliance. Its 21 members, which include Amazon.com Inc., Exelon Corp. and Uber Technologies Inc., cited it on a list of guiding principles and pledged to support a number of federal and state policies that could bring down the upfront price of EVs.
At least one formidable obstacle for price parity is the prospect of battery-mineral price spikes, driven largely by an explosion of EV demand. Market researchers from multiple firms and automakers like Tesla Inc. have warned that by the mid-2020s, minerals like lithium and cobalt used in EV batteries could experience shortages. One U.N. panel found this past summer that to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals, demand for minerals like cobalt, nickel and lithium will leap tenfold (Climatewire, June 26).
Supply shortages are “certainly an issue,” acknowledged Frith. If a record price spike were to occur — like the one that hit lithium in 2018 — it would delay EV batteries’ race to price parity by about two years, he said.
Some battery makers are beginning to insulate themselves from such shortages by stockpiling raw materials and shrinking their use of cobalt, a precious metal that also has been associated with human rights violations in Congo, the world’s main source.
EV makers may eventually be able to turn to alternatives like solid-state batteries, which use far less precious metals, in coming years, said Frith. At least one major automaker, Volkswagen AG, wants to incorporate solid-state batteries in its EVs as soon as 2024, although that hinges on a startup partner’s ability to scale up inventions from the lab to the factory.
The BloombergNEF analysis also notes how far the cost of batteries has fallen over the last decade, fueled by purchases of smartphones and laptop computers. In 2020, the average per-kWh cost for lithium-ion was $137, down from over $1,100 in 2010.
By 2030, prices could go as low as $58, the firm predicted, possibly by substituting lithium-ion for solid-state chemistries.
Once EVs grow broadly affordable for the mass market, said Frith, automakers are likely to diverge in their choice of batteries. “A race to the bottom on price won’t be the main driver anymore.”
New EV Battery Could Cut Costs, End ‘Range Anxiety’ — study
Thursday, January 21, 2021
Rapid charging of electric cars has caused some lithium-ion batteries to degrade over time, making the batteries increasingly unstable (Climatewire, Aug. 5, 2020). The phenomenon, known as lithium plating, is more common when the weather is below freezing, some research suggests.
The cold-immune battery system developed by the Penn State team is low-cost, having the potential to bring down the retail price of EVs to $25,000, the study said. New electric cars on the market today typically cost over $30,000.
Lithium-ion batteries often have built-in management systems that slow the charging process when it’s cold outside to reduce plating and degradation, according to 2018 research from the Idaho National Laboratory. As a result, charging in northern regions of the U.S. is noticeably less efficient, the lab study said. That could hold back EV adoption in those areas, especially for taxi or rideshare drivers who may need to charge quickly at public stations while on the job.
To achieve fast charging regardless of the climate, the Penn State researchers placed a self-heating structure on a lithium-iron phosphate battery that keeps the system’s temperature at 140 degrees Fahrenheit when the car is moving, said Chao-Yang Wang, corresponding author on the paper and co-director of the Battery and Energy Storage Technology Center at Penn State. Made of an ultra-thin nickel foil, the self-heating structure also cools the battery to the temperature outside when the car is turned off, Wang said.
“[Regardless] of ambient temperature, even as low as minus 30 Fahrenheit, we rapidly heat up the battery around 60 deg. C for operation so we can still charge fast,” Wang said in an email.
In addition to its reliably rapid charging, the thermally modulated battery is more stable and safer than most lithium-ion models, as well as sustainable, Wang said. While the use of cobalt in EVs improves batteries’ energy density, mining for the metal, which mostly takes place in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is associated with questionable labor and environmental practices.
“In a nutshell, we have developed the [thermally modulated] battery for $25,000 electric cars that race like luxury sport cars, have no range anxiety thanks to 10-min convenient rechargeability, are safer than any currently on the market, and use zero cobalt,” Wang said.
The battery could also last for an estimated 2 million miles of driving, according to the study, which would be a major improvement compared with most electric cars today that can typically be driven for up to 200,000 miles. Most likely, a car powered by the thermally modulated battery would retire before the battery had died — meaning it could potentially enjoy a second life for energy storage or another use, Wang said.
The research team hopes to partner with automakers to facilitate the demonstration and commercialization of their battery for next-generation EVs, he added.
Like any new technology, the thermally modulated model could run into technical kinks when scaled up. One battery scientist who did not work on the study questioned whether the high temperature of the battery could shorten its lifetime in practice.
But taken together with other recent innovations in batteries, it could help make EVs cost-competitive with internal combustion vehicles within a decade, said Haresh Kamath, senior program manager of energy storage at the nonprofit Electric Power Research Institute, which was not involved with the research.
“This is an example of some of the innovative thinking that’s happening all the way across the industry that’s helping us reduce costs and some of the challenges that EVs have right now,” Kamath said.
While other scientists have tried to design or discussed the potential benefits of elevated temperatures in batteries, the concept hasn’t been implemented on a wide scale, he added.
“It’ll be interesting to see if this system can be implemented,” Kamath said
22 Jan ’21 BA-US Boeing commits to deliver commercial airplanes ready to fly on 100% sustainable fuels ($205.23, -2.18)
- Boeing is setting an ambitious target to advance the long-term sustainability of commercial aviation, committing that its commercial airplanes are capable and certified to fly on 100% sustainable aviation fuels by 2030. Boeing has previously conducted successful test flights replacing petroleum jet fuel with 100% sustainable fuels to address the urgent challenge of climate change.
- According to the Air Transport Action Group, U.S. Department of Energy and several other scientific studies, sustainable aviation fuels reduce CO2 emissions by up to 80% over the fuel’s life cycle with the potential to reach 100% in the future. Today, sustainable aviation fuels are mixed directly with conventional jet fuel up to a 50/50 blend – the maximum allowed under current fuel specifications. In order to meet aviation’s commitment for reducing carbon emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2050, airplanes need the capability to fly on 100% sustainable aviation fuels well before 2050.
- Boeing’s commitment is to determine what changes are required for its current and future commercial airplanes to fly on 100% sustainable fuels, and to work with regulatory authorities and across the industry to raise the blending limit for expanded use.
- Boeing has been a pioneer in making sustainable aviation fuels a reality, partnering globally with airlines, industry, governments and research institutions to expand limited supplies and reduce the fuels’ cost. Boeing worked with airlines, engine manufacturers and others to conduct biofuel test flights starting in 2008 and gain approval for sustainable fuels in 2011. In 2018, the Boeing ecoDemonstrator flight-test program made the world’s first commercial airplane flight using 100% sustainable fuels with a 777 Freighter, in collaboration with FedEx Express.
- Sustainable aviation fuels can be made from a wide variety of feedstocks, including non-edible plants, agricultural and forestry waste, non-recyclable household waste, industrial plant off-gassing and other sources. Sustainability of the fuels is assured through strong, credible sustainability certifications through third-party organizations such as the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials.
